CORE MOLDING TECHNOLOGIES INC (CMT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 net sales were $58.4M (-19.9% y/y) with diluted EPS of $0.22; gross margin was 17.4% and operating margin 4.4%, evidencing ongoing operational discipline amid truck market weakness .
• Revenue, EPS, and EBITDA missed S&P Global consensus: $58.4M vs $70.36M*, $0.22 vs $0.40*, and EBITDA 5.78M* (GAAP) vs 9.05M*; management nevertheless kept gross margin within the signaled 17–19% range . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
• Full-year 2025 sales guidance was cut to down 10–12% y/y (from prior qualitative second-half moderation commentary), while gross margin framework remained 17–19% .
• Strategic growth remains a medium-term catalyst: $47M of new incremental business slated to launch over two years and $25M organic investment to expand Matamoros and build a Monterrey plant to support a major truck customer and add DCPD molding/paint capabilities .
• Operational KPIs hit records (2% scrap, >98% on-time delivery, PPM <100), reinforcing process improvements that partially offset lower fixed-cost leverage from lower volumes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Maintained gross margin in targeted 17–19% band despite double-digit sales decline, attributed to “operational excellence and focusing on cost control” (gross margin 17.4% in Q3) .
• Growth pipeline building: “$47 million in new incremental business scheduled to launch over the next two years,” including SMC and topcoat wins; “$25 million strategic investments” advancing with Matamoros expansion and a Monterrey greenfield facility .
• Record operational metrics: “2% scrap, zero inventory variance, on-time delivery rates above 98%, and PPM under 100,” reflecting embedded discipline across plants .

What Went Wrong

• Topline pressure persisted from the “known Volvo Transition and persistently lower demand in truck,” driving Q3 net sales down 19.9% y/y to $58.4M and diluted EPS down to $0.22 vs $0.36 y/y .
• Fixed-cost deleverage and sales mix (higher tooling) compressed margins: Q3 operating margin fell to 4.4% vs 4.9% y/y; management cited lower fixed-cost leverage (-0.8%) and mix dynamics .
• Powersports softness and truck declines weighed on segment sales; medium/heavy-duty truck product revenue fell to $19.5M from $41.3M y/y, with powersports at $17.5M vs $16.5M y/y (still below H1 2024 run-rate) .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (Q1 → Q2 → Q3 2025)

Q3 2025 vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown – Q3 2025 Product Sales by Market

KPIs and Balance Sheet

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 earnings call was held on Nov 4, 2025, but a transcript was not available via our document sources; call logistics provided in releases .

Management Commentary

• “While topline challenges persist, we are enthusiastic about … $47 million in new incremental business scheduled to launch over the next two years … $25 million strategic investments … expand Core’s Matamoros plant and establish a new greenfield facility in Monterrey, Mexico … leveraging DCPD molding and paint capabilities to drive long-term growth.” — CEO Dave Duvall & COO Eric Palomaki .
• “Our continuous improvement ‘Must Win Battle’ initiatives reached record levels … 2% scrap, zero inventory variance, on-time delivery rates above 98%, and PPM under 100 … first fix the organization, then accelerate growth.” — CEO Dave Duvall & COO Eric Palomaki .
• “Similar to the first half of 2025, the majority of the third quarter’s sales declines resulted from the known Volvo Transition and persistently lower demand in truck … we maintained gross margins within our signaled range of 17% to 19% … We expect our 2025 full-year sales to be down 10% to 12% year over year.” — CFO Alex Panda .

Q&A Highlights

• Transcript for the Nov 4, 2025 earnings call was not available via our document sources; call details and replay logistics were disclosed (dial-in and webcast information) .

Estimates Context

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Coverage was limited (one estimate for revenue and EPS).

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Topline miss against consensus alongside a guidance cut (FY25 sales down 10–12% y/y) is a near-term pressure point; nonetheless, gross margin held at 17.4%, inside the 17–19% framework .
• Mix and fixed-cost leverage will continue to be key sensitivities; higher tooling sales and lower volumes reduced operating margin to 4.4% from 4.9% y/y .
• Structural improvements are tangible and repeatable: record scrap/OTD/PPM metrics and consistent adjusted EBITDA margin (11.0% Q3) provide downside protection .
• Growth vector is credible: $47M of programs to launch over two years plus the Mexico expansion (Matamoros and Monterrey) to serve a major truck customer with added DCPD/paint capabilities .
• Liquidity and balance sheet provide flexibility to fund growth and buybacks (cash $42.4M; total liquidity $92.4M; debt/TTM adj. EBITDA 0.70x) .
• Segment exposure is shifting: building products and industrial/utilities grew y/y in Q3, partially offsetting truck declines; monitoring powersports stability remains important .
• Near-term trading: focus on any follow-on disclosures around demand stabilization in truck and cadence of program launches; medium-term thesis rests on execution of new business pipeline and Mexico capacity ramp while preserving margin discipline .